Will The Canucks Ever Live Up To The Hype?

There is currently one team without a win the the NHL playoffs.  No, it isn't the eighth seeded Islanders taking on the might Sidney Crosby's, err Penguins.  It isn't the Minnesota Wild who are the eight seed in the Western Conference and taking on the President's Trophy winners.  It isn't the Maple Leafs who haven't sniffed the postseason in almost a decade.  It's the perennial Stanley Cup contenders,Canucks.

the Vancouver

Vancouver has had its share of playoff disappointments over the past few years.  We all remember what happened last year.  The shuffling of goalies gave the eighth seeded Los Angeles Kings a chance to pounce on the lack of chemistry this team had.  Not only was the number one seed upset, but it happened in an embarrassing five games.  When you have the best record in the league you know that it isn't going to bode well when you can't make it out of the first round.  The worst part is that they were the defending Western Conference champions. 

The year prior when they made the Stanley Cup it seemed as if they could not be stopped.  Roberto Luongo looked like the best goalie in the league at home, but like Swiss cheese away getting replaced twice.  This series started making the Luongo can't carry this team chatter louder than ever.  Vancouver knows what it is to have high expectations that aren't being lived up to.  For five seasons in a row the Canucks have won the Northwest Division, and barring a miracle by this team its going to be four out of five years that they couldn't get out of the second round.  With back to back first round exits as the higher seed there is no doubt that there will be an overhaul in Vancouver. 

It is quite ironic that the team they are down to in the series is the San Jose Sharks.  The Sharks were reigning regular season stars and post season chumps.  They repeatedly went into the playoffs as a high seed, sometimes even number one or two, and would be knocked out early.  Now San Jose is the team who are delivering the upsets, and to the team who has taken their place as the cautionary tale.  I am sure that nobody on the Sharks feel bad for the other team, but they sure know the feeling that they are going through, and they sure are happy to feel the other side of the coin.

Tonight in theory has to be the last game Roberto Luongo has with a Canucks uniform.  He has been going through the roller coaster all season of being the backup, then the starter, the backup, then starter and hearing his name in trade rumors all season long only to see the deadline come and go with him staying on the same team the whole time.  He has gone through the whole process with class with no incident of losing his cool (which is a testament to the patience of the guy seeing that it seemed like he was being asked the same questions on a daily basis).  There was rumors that he had a chance to go to the Toronto Maple Leafs at the day of the deadline, but the trigger was never pulled by either side.  The Canucks hand is going to be forced during the offseason of testing the market and getting what they can for the twelve year veteran.  He would be easily traded if it wasn't for two things.  1. the new collective bargaining agreement will still give contract penalties to players who retire while their contract is still ongoing (Luongo's current contract has him going until he is 43-years-old, which is very unlikely to play out that long) and 2. there are so many directions that teams can go with goalie needs this offseason.  There are big name free agents (Evgeni Nabakov, Mike Smith or Nicklas Backstrom), low priced chances that may have high upside (Al Montoya, Ray Emery or Yann Danis) , a possible trade with other teams (Ryan Miller and possibly Jaroslav Halak if Elliot can perform in the playoffs), and the obvious rumor that will be beaten into the ground (Tim Thomas, anyone?).  So at the end Vancouver may kick itself for how it ended up dealing with the Luongo situation, because they may end up with a lot less than they anticipated.

Their big offseason splash came in the form of defenseman Jason Garrison.  They signed him away from the Panthers for six years and 27.6 million dollars.  While he hasn't necessarily had a bad season, his impact to this team hasn't been what they were expecting.  He was supposed to bring a scoring threat to this defense that it seems to have missed.  Also his rocket on the power play was supposed to push this team over the hump.  He ended up with six power play points all season (3G, 3A) and he just did not make much of a difference than the much cheaper players that were out there this summer.  Although it seems that Garrison may be turning it around lately, the entire body of work is not what you were expecting when you signed the guy.  Hopefully he is a product of a lockout shortened season and not just a guy who overachieved in a contract year.  He has made zero impact on this Kings series even though he already has fifteen shots.  In fact, their defense as a whole has been abysmal this series.  They've allowed 28, 38 and 33 shots in their three games against the Sharks.  That's almost one hundred shots allowed in three games.  That won't cut it in this league.

The problem all season was anything but their top line offense.  You had the Sedin brothers causing their usual havoc as the top line.  They both lead the Canucks in points (Henrik with 45 and Daniel with 40).  Ryan Kesler was also a great commodity when he returned from injury with thirteen points in seventeen games.  Unfortunately, it seems that is where the offense ends.  They brought in Derek Roy from Dallas, but he only offered an average of half a point per game.  The Sedins and Kesler are the only three players with multiple points on the team.  In fact, only four other players have any points at all.  The depth of this offense is alarming and is going to be something that needs to be addressed ASAP.  Depth is how the Kings and Devils made the Cup last season.  It will be the most likely reason the same thing happens this year.  It is a fact you cannot win the Cup with only one line providing all the offense for you.
Is it a weird season because of the lockout?  Of course it is.  Is that going to be the excuses for most of these teams?  Probably.  There was talk about all coaches keeping their jobs because of that said excuse.  Head coach Alain Vigneault may be running out of excuses.  He has been the best regular season coach since he took over the Canucks back in 2007, but the post season has been his demise.  He has juggled goalies, been up and down on lines/players and seems to have the wrong game plan every time the puck drops.  I will admit, he is one of the better coaches in the NHL, but a defensive minded coach cannot see what is going on with his team this series and not get sick to his stomach.  Vigneault is coming into the last year of his contract and both sides may agree it would be better to just skip the media circus it would involve and start fresh in different places.  Vancouver wants so bad to be the first Canadien team in two decades to win a Stanley Cup, but since they made it to game 7 of the championship they have gone backwards every year.  It may be time to hear a new voice in the locker room.

The Canucks need to make history just to come back in this series.  They are down three games to none and have not shown the kind of resolve you need to make a comeback.  They got completely whooped on, losing to San Jose 5-2 in Game 3.  If they want to change how people think of their entire legacy of the past half decade then they need to make some kind of run right here.  If they don't then you may not recognize this team next season.  Time will tell if that will be for the better or not.

It's About Time...Toronto Has A Team They Can Be Proud Of

Toronto is no doubt a hockey town, it is Canada, but they have three major sports teams in their city (four if you count the occasional Bills game).  The unfortunate part is none of those teams have been good in a long time.  The Toronto Blue Jays made big moves this offseason to try and compete with the likes of the Yankees and Red Sox in the ultra competitive AL East, a division they have not won since before the players strike in 1994.  They went out and made big moves with a trade that brought in Jose Reyes and Josh Johnson among others on top of the signing of Melky Cabrera and separate trade to bring in RA Dickey.  After all the hype and hoopla, the Jays ended April as the worst team in the division...by a lot.  The surprising Red Sox are leading the division, and Toronto is eight games behind them already.  They haven't brought a championship home for what will be twenty years after this season.  The Raptors are just plain bad.  They haven't made the playoffs in half a decade when the Eastern Conference basically begs someone to be that eighth seed.  Out of the eighteen seasons that they existed, they had a winning record in four of them.  This despite the fact that they had superstars like Vince Carter, Chris Bosh and Damon Stoudemire as franchise centerpieces at different times.  This is a sad franchise that had its biggest acquisition in who knows how long in the acquisition of Rudy Gay.  It didn't help much.

Then there are the stalwart Toronto Maple Leafs.  The Maple Leafs are a very successful franchise as they have won the second most Stanley Cups in the history of the sport with thirteen.  Unfortunately, anyone under the age of fifty most certainly can't remember one that actually happened.  The Leafs last championship run happened way back in 1967.  Since then seventeen franchises have been able to say that they were champions.  The Toronto faithful can't wait til the day comes where they can claim the same thing, if it ever comes.

It has been nine years since the last time that the Leafs were playoff bound.  When the Maple Leafs were in the playoffs there were no states that allowed same sex marriage, Ken Jennings had never been on Jeopardy, the Red Sox were still living through the curse, Call of Duty and Halo were still on their first installments, the average cost of a gallon of gas was $2.10, Lance Armstrong was the most beloved athlete in the world, we didn't care who the mother was, Stephen Colbert was just some guy on the Daily Show, Lebron James was a rookie, and we didn't hate Gary Bettman.  Well two lockouts and eight seasons later and we finally have Toronto playoff hockey.  I just wish Brian Burke was here to see this (wait, no I don't). 

One can point to many things as to why the Leafs are playoff bound.  The most common attribute would have to be the addition of James Van Riemsdyk.  He provided another extreme scoring touch to an offense that was way to reliant on Phil Kessel to produce for them.  He was a injury hazard coming into the season, and he made sure that he played all 48 games to show that was all predetermined.  He scored thirty-two points throughout the season.  He has shown that he can play through the pressure cooker of Philadelphia, so Toronto is a cake walk.

James Reimer has put together his best campaign by far in his career.  He bounced back from his sophomore slump season that he experienced last season.  He posted his best save percentage and goals against average in his three years in the league.  He took this team on his back and carried them to new heights.  At the ripe age of 25, he showed that he will be the man between the pipes for years to come.  He ended up seventh in the league in save percentage.  On top of Reimer, Ben Scrivens showed he could more than carry the load in the absence of their starter.  If Reimer can keep his cool during the playoffs, this could be one of the bigger stories of the postseason. 

The fact is that Toronto finally has something they can be proud of.  The city as a whole can finally rejoice as they have made the postseason in a sport for the first time in five years.  They face a tough test in the Boston Bruins and with success only comes greater expectations.  They need to find a way to continue this kind of success.

The main reason that the Leafs are where they are is because of the man who never leaves the bench, Randy Carlyle.  He has brought a different mindset to this team.  He is the most important cog to this entire Maple Leaf machine.  The Leafs will go where their coach takes them.  Don't be surprised if that's to the second round, and maybe even beyond.

The Penguins Focus Should Not Be Sidney Crosby, Fleury Is The Key To Their Success

When you have arguably the two best forwards in the NHL the rest of your team is going to get overlooked.  Sidney Crosby is the most talked about player in the National Hockey League.  Evgeni Malkin is the reigning MVP.  Together and it almost seems like an anomaly that they should win the Stanley Cup on a yearly basis.  You have two players who have the skills to score a hat trick on a nightly occasion.  Then you add in the fact that in different in season deals they acquired Jarome Iginla, Jussi Jokinen, and Brandon Morrow.  The Pens have eight players with over ten goals in the shortened season.  (That doesn't even include Malkin who was hurt for parts of the season.)  The Penguins have the scariest offense that has been assembled in years.  They have leadership, chemistry, and skill to go along with the intangibles of being part of that culture. 

Crosby will be the biggest story as he has started skating after taking a vicious shot to the face that ended up breaking his jaw.  It is almost certain he will be back this series.  What kind of factor will he be?  What kind of conditioning will he have?  Is it ironic that he is returning against the Islanders, the same team he returned against last year?

Better question, who cares?

Crosby has shown that he has little effect on whether the Penguins go anywhere in the playoffs.  He has played in the post season five times.  His averages look like this:
2007 First Round Exit, 1.00 points per game
2008 Stanley Cup Loss, 1.35 points per game
2009 Stanley Cup Win, 1.29 points per game
2010 Second Round Exit, 1.46 points per game
2012 First Round Exit, 1.33 points per game

No matter what, the captain's production stayed the same yet the win/loss changed dramatically every year.  How could this be?  There are many things someone can point to, but there is only one constant in this entire scenario, Marc Andre Fleury.  The Penguins goalie seems to be solely responsible for the success and failure of the franchise. 

If you look at the season stats of Fleury's you would think he is a dominant goalie and one of the best in the league.  Yet when that conversation comes up you never hear his name mentioned outside of Pittsburgh.  The problem with him is his consistency.  He can pitch a shutout or allow seven goals on any given night.  That kind of play doesn't really fare well when you are playing the top competition on a nightly basis.  That is what the playoffs is all about. 

The playoffs has not always been kind to Fleury.  In 75 postseason games he has a .904 save percentage.  It ends up being a lot lower than his career .910 save percentage.  What is even more alarming is the difference in win percentage.  It is alarming because his win percentage is higher in the playoffs than it is during the regular season.  A goalie with the two greatest scorers of our generation on the same team has to put up like a 65 percent winning percentage, right?  Nope.  It is around 55 percent in the regular season and 57 percent in the playoffs.  The playoff stats do not stack up against some of the better players in the league, old and new.  Here are the playoff stats against some of the better goalies in the league:

M. Fleury           75 GP 2.68 GAA .904 SV% 5 SO
H. Lundqvist      55 GP 2.31 GAA .917 SV% 6 SO
M. Brodeur       205 GP 2.02 GAA .919 SV % 24 SO
J. Quick             32 GP 2.12 GAA .926 SV% 4 SO
T. Thomas         50 GP 2.07 GAA .933 SV% 6 SO

Those numbers say something.  It says that there is a reason that you never hear Fluery's name when a conversation about the best goaltenders in the league is occurring.  His numbers speak volumes about why there is only one ring on Crosby's finger. 

So what is the problem with Fleury?  Early in his career he carried two teams to Stanley Cup appearances, with one being a win.  Every time that he has a save percentage over .900 the Penguins make it to the Stanley Cup.  Think about that for one second, if he could be around league average in the playoffs he makes it to the championship every time.  That is a stat that one does not need to get into to understand why he is an intricate part of Pittsburgh winning a cup.  Where did it go wrong?  You can't blame it on the pressure of a big contract because he won the cup the year after he signed it.  You can't say he whittles under pressure because he brought one Stanley Cup to a seventh game and came back and beat that same team the next year.  He plays well under pressure as proof by winning game seven on the road in Joe Louis Arena (one of the hardest to play in).  The only thing that can be pointed to is a loss of confidence.

Sports can be more mentally tough than physically tough sometimes.  With all the injuries you see that may be impossible to believe, but it is true.  Confidence is an athletes best friend while he has it.  Irrational confidence can make an average player into a star because he never second guesses himself.  It can make a basketball players shot go in, a baseball player hit a home run, and a quarterback throw a perfect spiral.  A loss of confidence can make all those things turn to garbage just as quickly.  Fleury spent his first three playoff appearances as the next big thing.  He was going to carry the Pens to a dynasty.  Then the Montreal series happened.  The Pens came in as heavy favorites to beat the 8th seeded Canadiens.  They received 101 points during the regular season and were thought of as a legitimate contender to the Cup once again.  When the first seed Capitals and the second seed Devils were both upset in the first round then it was a foregone conclusion that it was Pittsburgh's title to lose.  The Canadiens had other ideas and took down the Pens in seven games.  The last game was particularly bad for Fleury as he allowed four goals in just over twenty-five minutes of ice time.  His SV% that game was under .700.  Since that game Fleury has gone 5-8 with a .868 save percentage and allowing 3.31 goals per game. 

One just needs to look at last year to see the issue Fleury presents.  The Penguins scored 26 goals in the six game series against Philadelphia.  They only won two games.  The competition ended up scoring 30 goals in that same span.  That's an average of five goals every game.  I have said this before, it was literally the worst professional sports performance I have seen in my entire lifetime.  It was almost sad.  You felt bad for Fleury.  You didn't know what went wrong.  You just knew it was wrong.

This entire postseason rests on the broad shoulders of the former number one overall pick.  If he can regain his form from four years ago then the rest of the NHL is in trouble.  If not then its clear that the Penguins can be outscored.  This is do-or-die for Marc Andre.  If he falters one more time in the same kind of fashion he has then the Pens may look in another direction for the future of their franchise.  They don't know how long they can afford to keep Malkin and Crosby together.  They don't know how much longer Crosby's body is going to hold up.  They can't waste the prime years of these two superstars with a goalie who cannot play to their level.  Its up to Marc at this point to prove to us he can get back on that elite level, or else.

The Golden Age Of The Phillies Has Ended

"Swing and a miss, struck him out! The Philadelphia Phillies are 2008 World Champions of baseball!"

-Harry Kalas

October 29, 2008

That was the call that Phillies fans dreamed about since Harry Kalas took over the announcer's booth in 1971.  (I know they won the World Series in 1980 but Kalas was not allowed to call the games because of a contract dispute with CBS and MLB.)  Philadelphia had not seen a championship since 1983.  Not just in baseball, but in any sport.  Think about that, a city with arguably the most ruthless and passionate fans going without a championship for a quarter of a century.  The team with the most championships in the history of the city are the Philadelphia Athletics, who haven't played there since 1955.  The city has had its share of disappointments.  This Phillies team was different.  It was full of home-grown stars who all worked out.  It was a team that Philly watched grow into a champion.  That made it all the sweeter.  That is why this next season is going to hurt so much.

The perenial championship contender that this town has gotten used to for the past 6-7 years has come and gone.  The Phillies are no longer the cream of the crop in the National League.  Hell, they are probably the third or fourth best team in their own division.  Their main guys are getting old.  They can't keep away from the injury bug.  Their elite players look less superstar and more replacement player every year.  They cleaned out the roster last year at the trade deadline by trading away Hunter Pence and Shane Victorino in separate deals.  They retooled this offseason by trading for Ben Revere and Michael Young while also signing Delmon Young to a very team friendly deal.  These aren't exactly Roy Halladay or Cliff Lee type deals.

It seems as if the Phils just aren't the team we have come accustomed to in recent years. They aren't the team that is picked by half the analysts on Baseball Tonight to win it all.  They aren't even picked to make the postseason anymore.  The winning mentality that Charlie Manuel brought with him has left this dugout and has no signs of coming back.  Maybe a change is in order.  Maybe the core of this team needs a face lift.  We have been looking at Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Howard and Chase Utley man the Phillies infield since 2005.  They have some sort of chemistry that isn't easy to come by.  The problem is those three players will cost this team 46 million dollars combined.  Utley and Howard missed a combined 170 games last year.  Rollins has had injury issues for most of the past five years.  This is just too much money and too big of a risk at this point in their careers. 

The pitching staff is supposed to be a strength of the Phillies.  When you have three pitchers making over twenty million dollars per season you would expect it to be.  Roy Halladay is getting rocked to the tune of an ERA at 6.04 on the season.  Cole Hamels has an ERA of 6.46 and his team has lost every game that he has pitched.  Cliff Lee is the only pitcher in this rotation who still scares anyone.  The Phillies as a team rank 23rd in ERA.  They aren't the hard hitting team they were so they need to be tops in the league in pitching to have any chance at competing. 

The Braves, the Nationals and even the Mets have a crop of talent that is either in their prime or has it upcoming that makes it look like the Phillies strangle hold on this division is gone.  The Nationals have a rotation headed by Stephen Strasberg (24-years-old) and Gio Gonzalez (27-years-old).  The Braves have young pitching talent in Kris Medlen (27-years-old) and Mike Minor (25-years-old).  The Mets have two future phenoms in Matt Harvey (24-years-old) and Zach Wheeler (22-years-old).  The Philles top three are making much more than all of them, and are 29, 34, and 35-years-old respectively.  They have been passed already and don't seem like they can make it back to the big dog in the division.

 Is it too late this season for the Phillies to turn it around and make one more run?  No, but is it likely?  Probably not.  The competition is too good and the team is playing too bad.  The Phils are two games under five hundred and they haven't had any major injuries.  Imagine what is going to happen when they have to put Utley, who is producing out of his mind right now, on the fifteen day (at least) DL.  Without his production this offense would be ranked a lot lower than they are now (and they are only ranked middle of the pack in most categories).  Their main cogs need to start getting on Utley's level if they want to make some noise in 2013.

It was a great run.  As they say, all good things must come to an end.  It seems that the run that this great group of Phillies had is now over.  The memories are great, and they gave us the most infamous call in the Phillies history.  Harry Kalas passed away a few months after that World Series call.  It seemed he was destined to do that at least once in his great career.  Hopefully this team can retool for the future.  Maybe they will be able to keep some of the guys from the last run around.  One thing is for sure, Ruben Amaro Jr has his work cut out for him.  He started to bring in a new era in Philadelphia, he needs to continue with that trend.  He may have to have one bad season, but sometimes that is what it takes to bring another set of memories.  If you ask any Phillies fan if they'd trade this season to bring in another era like the one we just saw, I am pretty sure you will get a majority to sign up for that.

We're All Set, Western Conference Preview

Two races were at the mainstay of talking heads when it came to the Western Conference playoff race, the number one seed and the number eight seed.  Mainly because of the teams involved as the Spurs and Thunder seemed to be fighting for the top spot all year and the retooled Lakers weren't gelling like everyone though, sending them to the bottom of the league.  The match ups seemed to work out a lot better than they did in the East, at least David Stern must think so.  Pacers against the Hawks doesn't hold as much ground as the Lakers looking to upset the Spurs minus Kobe but with a rejuvenated Dwight Howard.  The Heat taking on an under 500 Bucks team doesn't even touch the Thunder seeing their old friend James Harden in the first round.

The West is full of star power.  Even without Kobe it seems that every team besides the Nuggets has at least one superstar.  Whether it is future superstars like KD and Russell Westbrook, former superstars like Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili, and currently in their prime superstars like Chris Paul and Blake Griffin, every team can bring something to the table.  The excitement factor in the West is through the roof.  You could conceivably convince someone that an upset is possible in every series.  What are the odds it actually happens? 

Let's take a look at the Western Conference:

#1 Oklahoma City Thunder VS. #8 Houston Rockets
Season Records: 60-22 vs 45-37
Series Record: Thunder leads series 2-1

The Thunder look close to destined to represent the West once again.  They are stacked and they have a roster of young players who never get injured.  The Rockets made major moves this offseason.  They brought in James Harden from these same Thunder and also signed Jeremy Lin away from the Knicks.  Bringing Linsanity to Houston showed that they were serious about becoming contenders in the West for years to come.  They also made under the radar moves like signing Omer Asik away from the Bulls and Carlos Delfino away from the Bucks.  The Rockets GM Daryl Morey made some smart moves to push this team in the right direction.  He made the moves that helped end a three year absence from the postseason in Houston.  The Thunder seem to never make a wrong move.  They did get Kevin Martin and three picks from the deal that sent away Harden, they gave away basically nothing to bring over Ronnie Brewer, Derek Fisher and Eric Maynor over in midseason trades, and they did just enough to obtain the first overall seed.

Unluckily for Oklahoma City, the Rockets are just happy to be here.  They would love to knock off the number one and the favorite to take the West crown.  Harden would love to show the Thunder that they made the wrong choice by trading him.  Lin would love to show the world that he wasn't just some one hit wonder.  The problem is that the Rockets defense is downright awful.  Ranking 28th in the league, Houston allows 102.5 points per game.  They have problems with every offense, and they will have fits trying to stop scoring machine Kevin Durant.  The third worst defense going against the third best defense is not a match up that will work out well for the former.  The Rockets will put up a fight, but the Thunder will be too much for this upstart team.

Series Outcome: Thunder in 6 games

#2 San Antonio Spurs VS. Los Angeles Lakers
Season Records: 58-24 vs 45-37
Season Series: Spurs lead series 2-1

It has been well documented how the Laker's season has gone.  They brought in Steve Nash and Dwight Howard to make them preseason favorites.  They started off bad and fired their coach Mike Brown after three games.  They continued to struggle throughout the first three months as they sported a record of 20-26 at the end of January.  That's when Kobe stepped in and took over.  He started having 35 and 40 point games by the handful.  He took the Laker's woes in his own hands and did what he could to turn it around.  It is a sin that they never figured out how to make the Kobe, Nash, Howard, Pau Gasol foursome work.  If they had the right system then they would dominate the NBA.  Enough about the Lakers, they take over Sportscenter enough that you know all about it.  Somehow after all these years the Spurs keep winning.  The fact that Greg Popovich has done as well as he has done even though his starting unit keeps getting older is remarkable.  At 36-years-old, Tim Duncan is still balling better than most power forwards in the league.  He hasn't had numbers as good as this year since three years ago.  Tony Parker shows he should be in every conversation for best point guard in the NBA, even though he isn't. 

This is the series most NBA fans are looking forward to the most.  The Lakers, the surprising underdog, while the Spurs know this round is just a necessity.  The Lakers lost Kobe for about a year when the shooting guard tore his Achilles tendon against the Warriors.  LA will need to use their bigs to take advantage of San Antonio.  Howard and Gasol can surely take advantage of the likes of Duncan and Tiago Splitter.  The Spurs have questions regarding the health of Ginobili and have just brought on former superstar Tracy McGrady.  Is this a smart decision or an act of desperation?  With all the clues given the writing is on the wall, the Spurs will dominate this series.  What?  Everything seemed to point to a Laker upset, what happened?  For one, the coaches are a distinct San Antonio favorite.  The depth of the Lakers is garbage, especially without their leading scorer.  Nobody knows how healthy Nash really is, and if he can't go their back court will consist of Steve Blake and Jodie Meeks.  Things are bleak in LA and expect the NBA to lose some ratings over how short this series is (unless David Stern has something to say about it...SHHHHHHH).

Series Outcome: Spurs in 5 games

#3 Denver Nuggets VS. #6 Golden State Warriors
Season Records: 57-25 vs 47-35
Series Record: Denver leads 3-1

These teams have not seen each other since they met back on January 13th.  A lot can happen in three months time.  Danilo Gallinari's knee was still intact back then.  There were no questions about Ty Lawson's health.  Andrew Bogut is finally back and playing for the Warriors.  This isn't like it was back then.  The Nuggets are sorely going to miss their leading scorer throughout this postseason.  The Warriors provide an interesting match up.  They can score up front and have a scorer in the back with Stephen Curry.  They rank third in the league in rebounds and get plenty of second chances to add points that looked as if they were lost.  Curry is slowly becoming one of the most frightening point guards in the league. 

The x-factor here is going to be home court advantage.  The Nuggets have won 38 out of their 41 home games.  They have a over a 92 percent winning percentage at home.  That is unfathomable in today's NBA.  How did they fall to a third seed then?  Well they only won 19 of the 41 away games.  This series will go exactly as it is supposed to, the home team will win every game.  Both teams play great in front of their home crowd, yet win less than half their games on the road.  Expect the defense of Javale McGee and Andre Iguodala with an addition of the presence of Kenneth Farried to end up being too much for the Warriors.  It will be a back and forth series, but Denver takes it at the very end.

Series Outcome: Denver in 7 games

#4 Los Angeles Clippers VS. #5 Memphis Grizzlies
Season Records:   56-26 vs 56-26
Series Record: LA leads 3-1
The Clippers come into this series after winning their first division title ever.  That wasn't a misprint, a franchise that has existed since 1970 had never won a division title.  Think about that Cubs fans.  This is a new way of thinking for the "other" LA team.  They swept the LA Lakers for the first time in the Donald Sterling era.  They are fun to watch, as proof by them being sixth in the league in attendance.  They are playing great defense and are deeper than most teams on the bench.  The Grizzlies are a different kind of team.  They beat you with no doubt the best front court in the NBA.  Marc Gasol is quickly out shining his brother in terms of being the best Spanish player in the NBA.  He is dominating a position that just seems to get thinner and thinner every year.  The fact that there are four or five dominant centers shows how different an NBA we live in. 

The Grizz will be a formidable foe for the Clips.  Gasol and Zach Randolph will have their respective ways with the likes of Deandre Jordan and Blake Griffin on the offensive side.  The issue here is that is where there advantages stop.  Chris Paul is the best point guard in the game and the Clips have a pure scorer in Jamal Crawford coming off the bench.  Even if the stats show that Memphis has been 27-10 since the Rudy Gay trade, they are going to miss his pure scoring ability in this series.  They don't have the athletic ability that the Clippers possess.  That is what is going to decide this series.  The Grizzlies defense will make this series a nail biter, but it will be the Clippers who taste victory. 

Series Outcome: Clippers in 7 games

We're All Set, Eastern Conference Playoff Preview

After a long and grueling season in the NBA, the matchups are finally set.  The East seems to be quite top heavy, as it seems that the Finals can be represented by a handful of teams in this conference.  Of the four series, only one seems like the lower seed has a chance to win.  That doesn't mean these playoffs won't be exciting.  A lot of the top teams are playing ones with contrasting styles.  The East looks to be filled with high scoring ball that will rival some of the more exciting series of the past decade, hopefully.  We have two series with home field advantage in New York City for the first time ever.  We have the defending champs and the reigning (and most likely winner once again) MVP going up against a Bucks team that severely underachieved and could put up a surprising fight against the Big Three.  Then you have two teams in the Hawks and the Pacers who haven't won a title in a combined ninety-five years.  One could say that those teams are kind of due.

These series have the ability to be as one sided as one could possibly imagine, or exciting and down to the wire the entire time.  There is no in between.  There are many Jekyll and Hyde teams in the playoffs.  We could have close, down to the wire games, or ones that let us watch something else by halftime.  Actually now that I think about it, this is the NBA, everybody makes a run.

Lets get into the matchups:

#1 Miami Heat VS. #8 Milwaukee Bucks

Season Records: 66-16 vs 38-44

Season Series: Miami leads 3-1

The real season starts for the Heat on Sunday.  The 27 game winning streak, the number one seed in theLebron, all that is annoying necessity to this team.  They need to play the regular season, they can't wait to play the post season.  The Bucks made the playoffs by the skin of their teeth after they couldn't even post a winning record in the regular season.  This is destined for failure, right?  Not necessarily.  The Bucks have a lot to play for.  Arguably their three best players will be playing for their next contracts.  Monta Ellis and JJ Redick are both unrestricted free agents, and they will be looking to show all thirty teams what they can do on a national stage.  Brandon Jennings is known to play better in front of a nation-wide audience than he does on a regular basis.  He does better in the big media markets when everyone is watching.  In his only postseason series, Jennings carried the Bucks to the seventh game of a series with the Hawks that they were supposed to get blown out of.  He showed he can be an x-factor for an upset driven team.

East, best record in basketball, MVP being a lock for

Milwaukee is strong where the Heat are weak, at rebounding.  The Bucks ranked fourth in rebounds, the Heat are dead last.  This, and if the Heat underestimate the Bucks this could become a series.  Don't get me wrong, the Bucks aren't nearly deep enough to win this thing, but they can give Miami a scare.  Expect the defense of the Heat, as it had all season against Milwaukee, to dominate this matchup.  The Bucks may be able to steal a game, but that's where it will end.

Series Outcome: Heat in 5 games

#2 New York Knicks VS. Boston Celtics

Season Records: 54-28 vs 41-40

Season Series: Knicks leads 3-1

Quite possibly the most intriguing matchup of the post season.  You have on the one hand a team that has shown its dominance all season long, yet has done nothing in the playoffs.  Then you have the polar opposite, a team that was nothing but mediocre during the season, but has done nothing but win during the postseason.  The Celtics were in the seventh game of the Eastern Conference Finals last year, the Knicks didn't make it past the fifth game of the playoffs.  The Celtics swept the Knicks the year before.  It is Celtic's coach Doc Rivers who says don't look at the past, however.  This may be a surprise upset pick by some, but it doesn't seem likely.  The Knicks are hitting on all cylinders right now.  They won't beat a division rival every game, but they will show that they are trying to be the new kings of the Atlantic Division. 

Don't take this as me saying that Boston is going to go down quietly, because they won't.  With the tragedies that are happening in Boston on Monday and still ongoing up until the minute, there will be some extra fight in this Boston team.  The emotion of coming back to the TD Garden after a long layoff with the fans ready to get a distraction from the awful real world they currently live in, that will motivate this team.  That and the veteran presence of this team will help them steal some wins from the two seeded Knicks.  At the end of the day, the Knicks are far too talented to get bounced once again in the first round.  They will have their issues and will have something to work towards, but they are taking this series.  Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett may be playing their last games together.  Carmelo Anthony will finally bring this Knicks team to its first playoff series win in thirteen years.

Series Outcome: Knicks in 6 games

#3 Indiana Pacers VS. #6 Atlanta Hawks

Season Records: 49-32 vs 44-38

Season Series: 2-2

This series is a true tale of two seasons.  The Pacers took two losses early in the season while they won the last two meetings they had.  Indiana had a bad ending to their season winning only one of their last six games.  That combined with the Knicks fifteen game winning streak basically knocked them from having a chance to compete for the two seed.  The Hawks also had an awful ending to the season going two and five in their last seven games.  Both these teams are cold going into the playoffs so there is no telling which team can get hot and take the series home.  They play similar styles with their offense going through their bigs.  The Pacers with Roy Hibbert and David West and the Hawks with Al Horford and Josh Smith.  Atlanta is going to try to beat a very good defense when trying to score, which they've only been average at all year anyway.  The loss of Danny Granger hurts their depth immensely and makes it harder to keep Paul George off the floor at all.

The Hawks have some good players coming off the bench in Lou Williams and Zaza Pachulia who add extra scoring and rebounding to a team that definitely needs it.  These two could end up being under-the-radar key players in the series.  On paper, everyone wanted to play the Hawks, but I don't see this as being the best matchup for them.  I feel as if in the end they will indeed pull it out, but it will be in a hard fought series.  I expect Atlanta to take this team down to the wire.

Series Outcome: Pacers in 7 games

#4 Brooklyn Nets VS. #5 Chicago Bulls

Season Records: 49-33 vs 45-37

Season Series: Chicaco leads 3-1

This has been a banner season for a Nets team that hasn't seen playoff success since the Vince Carter days.  That success wasn't even what they were looking for.  Mikhail Prokhorov came into ownership of this team to take over the NBA.  Their move from New Jersey to Brooklyn has gone better than anyone could have expected.  They bolstered their lineup with additions of Joe Johnson and Andray Blatche and the returns of Deron Williams, Brook Lopez and Gerald Wallace.  The Nets are an underrated defensive team, ranking sixth in the NBA in points allowed per game.  The Bulls are not anything close to an offensive team.  The only thing offensive about them is the fact they rank 29th in the league in points per game.  They win their games on the defensive end, especially since they didn't have the services of Derrick Rose for the entire season. 

e could have expected.  They bolstered their lineup with additions of Joe Johnson and

The Bulls defense and three point shooting can win them games on any given night.  That is what is going to make this a series.  Everyone is expecting the Bulls to pull off an upset here because they've been here before.  The Nets may be inexperienced as a unit, but Williams has four years of postseason experience, Johnson has seven years, Wallace has five, and this will be Jerry Stackhouse's ninth playoff appearance.  That is a lot of years of experience to have for an entire unit.  Don't underestimate this Nets team, they can ball with the best of them.  We only remember that the Bulls just ended the Heat and Knicks win streaks two weeks apart from each other.  We don't remember that the Bulls style hurts teams like the Miami and New York, the Nets play a different style.  That style will bring Brooklyn to its feet and into the conference semi-finals.

Series Outcome: Nets in 7 games

Tune into Sports Envy tomorrow as we will go over who will be the big winners in the Western Conference Series.  The East was all chalk, who will the upsets be in the West?

Matt Harvey Is Untouchable; On The Field And Hopefully Off Of It

The Mets have a phenom on their hands.  A guy who is thought to be as close to a sure thing prospect that their could be.  His intangibles are through the roof and his baseball instincts are better than most ten year veterans.  That player is Travis d'Arnaud.  They also have a pitching prospect who is supposed to be lights out.  He can hit high 90s on the radar gun and his secondary pitches are developing quite nicely.  He is something that other teams covet when talking to the Mets about trades.  He is Zach Wheeler.

If the Mets have these two no doubt prospects, then what is so special about Matt Harvey?  We only have a small sample size.  What can thirteen games say about a player's career?  Well, from history it says that it shows us nothing.  There were many players who came onto the scene with a bang and lost it as quickly as they had it.

You can go all the way back to Mark Fidrych.  His rookie season consisted of four complete game shutouts, a 19-4 record and the kind of charisma that the Tigers were looking for.  The rest of his career consisted of three years and a whole lot of injuries.  There is Rick Ankiel who went from the savior to the Cardinals rotation, to a guy who completely forgot where the strike zone is.  In the 2000 playoffs he walk eleven batters in four innings.  That was over three games.  Ankiel is now an outfielder.  Oliver Perez looked like he could be the next ace to bring the Pirates out of the doldrums of baseball, but he ended up just taking the Mets money and walking everyone in sight.  Dontrelle Willis had some of the best stuff baseball has ever seen, but he had mental conditions that put so much stress on himself that he pitched himself out of baseball.  Then there are Mark Prior and Kerry Wood.  Thought to be the saviors of a floundering Cubs franchise, Prior and Wood brought the Cubs back into the public eye.  Injuries and public pressure ended up being too much for the duo and both are already seemingly retired without a substantial mark on the league they were supposed to dominate together. 

So how is Matt Harvey different from these players?  Harvey does not have an injury history of any kind.  He doesn't ever seem to be in pain and seems to take care of himself.  He has pitched well in any big spot he was put in, so the pressure doesn't seem to be a problem for him.  He grew up in the area (well Connecticut, but still) so he knows how the New York media can be, it won't be something that surprises him.  His only issue is finding the strike zone, at times.  That is something that, yes, can hurt his entire career, but every great pitcher doesn't have perfect control coming out of the minors.  Justin Verlander, considered by most to be the best pitcher in baseball, started his career with a strikeout to walk ratio hovering around two for the first three years.  Now he has doubled that.  Great pitchers get more comfortable with the major league strike zone. 

What keeps Harvey head and shoulders above normal prospects is his pitches.  Most flamethrowers will beat players with straight heat.  They have fastball/changeup combination and that is how they beat the hitters they face.  That is why most pitchers don't fair as well their second time facing a team.  Harvey could face you one game and take you out with his 98 mile-per-hour fastball then take you down with a changeup.  You could come up next time and see one of the nastiest sliders in the game, or he could even hit you with his newly improved curveball.  Harvey has four plus pitches and, if you add his velocity, he may be the perfect pitcher.  He can confuse you with changing speeds or make you think the ball is going to be where it isn't.  He can be what they call a "thrower" and he can also be a "pitcher".  Harvey is the total package.

The Mets cannot part with Harvey in any of the rumored deals that are out there.  Giancarlo Stanton and Carlos Gonzalez are both great players.  They can both do so much for this team that as the roster is constructed now they don't have.  The offense could definitely be a boost, but it isn't worth the price of Harvey.  Wheeler and dArnaud are as close to sure thing prospects as can be, but we've seen hundreds of sure things fizzle out as quickly as they rose up.  Harvey has proven he is dominant against professional hitters.  Last year he showed glimpses of his greatness, but this year he has blown everyone away.  In his three starts he has allowed six hits.  In case you are reading this quickly that said HITS not runs.  He has an ERA of 0.82 and a WHIP of 0.55.  Those are both pretty good stats.  Even better, he is 3-0 with 25 strikeouts against six walks.  He has twice as many strikeouts as he does base runners.  This isn't the kind of stud you trade when he is 24 and the Mets have control of him for another couple years.  There is no rush to trade this guy.  I do not want to downplay the talent of Stanton and Gonzalez, but there are just more top flight sluggers than there are starting pitchers.  An ace the caliber of Matt Harvey may come once a decade.  There is excitement in Queens for a kid that hasn't been felt since Dwight Gooden was throwing fastballs in the mid-80s.  I am pretty sure that this one will end a lot better than that whole saga. 

Keep Matt Harvey a Met.  He is the known commodity you have.  He is the future face of your dwindling franchise.  If you can get a Stanton or Gonzalez for Wheeler and d'Arnaud then jump on it.  They are both prospects.  If they ask you to add Harvey then you need to politely decline.  Harvey is a pro.  This guy has the ability to hold down your rotation for the next decade, if not more.  Wheeler could be great, or he could end up on the scrap heap.  Harvey is no one-hit wonder.  He is the real deal.  You don't ever, under any circumstances, get rid of the real deal.